The Paradoxical Preparedness Of India Against China River Thread

Operation Sindoor, followed by the Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22 in the Besaran meadow at Pahalgam, Kashmir, has sparked geographical tension between India and Pakistan—tensions that are further complicated by China's involvement. China appeared to be secretly supporting Pakistan before the terror attack, but the recent indirect threats involving water bodies from both nations toward India highlight their unwavering alliance.

Flashback to when India suspended the Indus Water Treaty—a treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960—as a response to the terror attack allegedly sponsored by Pakistan. This measure deeply impacted Pakistan, causing a serious water crisis in the country. India’s diplomatic step prompted China and Pakistan to tactically unite to counter the situation. An official statement from Pakistan outlined two key objectives: criticizing “India’s impulsive decision to suspend Indus water to Pakistan” and emphasizing “China’s potential to halt river flows.” Meanwhile, the vice president of a prominent Chinese think tank declared, “We will not remain silent.” These statements aim to intimidate India—but they are not enough to break its strength and unity.

If China and Pakistan collaborate, they could implement significant measures against India. The Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in China, flows into India through Arunachal Pradesh and Assam before entering Bangladesh as the Padma. Since the river originates in China, it holds an upper hand and could exploit this advantage in two ways:

First, by diverting the river’s flow through a hydropower project, which could trigger a severe water crisis in states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. The proposed project is estimated to take 12 years to complete and is aimed at solving water shortages in parts of China.

Second, the excessive release of water from the Brahmaputra could cause devastating floods in northeastern Indian states—another major concern.

If China chooses to express its alliance with Pakistan through such diplomatic strategies, India is equally prepared. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma backs this with logical reasoning: India receives only 30–35% of the Brahmaputra’s water flow from upstream, while the remaining 65–70% comes during the monsoon. Since northeastern India naturally faces flooding, China’s suspension of river flow might paradoxically help the region manage floods. Additionally, India is planning to build a dam in Arunachal Pradesh—at the point where the river enters Indian territory. This is a strong move aimed at controlling the sudden or excessive water flow from China.